2022 Mid-Term Elections Outlook: Unclear


2022 Mid-Term Elections Outlook: Unclear

The midterm elections are shaping up to be pretty exciting. In November, we will see elections for all 435 House seats and 35 of the 100 Senate seats.

Up until this fall, it seemed guaranteed that the Republicans would take a significant majority in the House, however, polling has tightened in light of the Supreme Court ruling on reproductive health. However, Republicans are still expected to secure a narrow majority, that being said, a majority of less than 10 seats will prove to be incredibly challenging for governing.

There are several competitive Senate races this year. 20 Republican and 13 Democratic Senate races will be up for grabs, with 5 of those Republican Senators retiring. The most competitive Senate races include Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin. 

  • Georgia — Incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) is running for reelection after being elected in a run-off against then-Senator Kelly Loefler in 2019. Senator Warnock is locked in a competitive race against former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker, with recent polling showing a toss-up between
    the two.
  • Nevada — Incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-NV) is running against Nevada Attorney General Adam Lexalt, with recent polling showing a slight lead averaging 1.7% for Cortez Masto.
  • North Carolina — Former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court Cheri Beasley is running to replace retiring Republican Senator Richard Burr (R-NC). Her opponent is North Carolina Congressman Ted Budd (R-NC), with the latest polling showing the two in a virtual tie.
  • Ohio — Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH) is running against venture capitalist J.D. Vance to replace retiring Senator Rob Portman (R-OH). Vance holds an average lead of 3.7 percent according to recent polling.
  • Wisconsin — Incumbent Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) is running for reelection against Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. The latest polling shows Barnes with a lead of two to seven percent.

2022 is also a significant year for gubernatorial races, 36 of the 50 states will hold elections for Governor. Of the 36, Republicans hold 20 of the seats to the Democrats 16, however, many believe the Democrats will pick up the chief executive role in Maryland and Massachusetts, creating a 2 seat deficit for the Republicans. An additional four races are considered toss up: Arizona (R), Kansas (D), Nevada (D), and Wisconsin (D).

November will be an exciting month! Stay tuned.

Meet The Author:

Katie Vlietstra

Katie Vlietstra

As Vice President for Government Relations and Public Affairs, I work to explain how actions on Capitol Hill can impact the self-employed. I love D.C. and have made my home in Capitol Hill, where I live with my husband and black Labrador, Coltrane. We love playing volleyball and softball on the National Mall.

Courtesy of NASE.org