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Government Shutdown Unlikely and Yet, Very Possible
As the September 30th deadline for FY25 government funding approaches, Congress is locked in a contentious battle over spending priorities. The House and Senate remain deeply divided on how to allocate limited resources, raising the specter of a government shutdown if a deal cannot be reached.
Speaker Johnson has proposed a six-month federal funding extension, pushing the funding fight to the new Congress (and a new President!) with the dead-on arrival inclusion of the SAVE Act, the bill would require individuals registering to vote in federal elections to provide documentary proof of U.S. citizenship. Speaker Johnson does not have the votes to pass this proposal, and the Senate would immediately reject the bill.
Areas of Current Dispute:
- Defense vs. Domestic Spending: Republicans are pushing for significant increases in defense spending, while Democrats are advocating for greater investments in domestic programs like education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
- Debt Ceiling: The ongoing debate over raising the debt ceiling continues to cast a shadow over the funding negotiations, with some Republicans linking the two issues.
- Emergency Funding: Congress is also grappling with requests for additional emergency funding to address various crises, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and domestic disasters.
Worst Case Scenario:
- Disruption of Government Services: A government shutdown could lead to delays in essential services, such as Social Security payments, Veterans Affairs benefits, and national parks operations.
- Economic Impact: A prolonged shutdown could have negative economic consequences, including job losses and a decline in consumer confidence.
- Political Fallout: The shutdown could have significant political implications for both parties, with voters likely to hold elected officials accountable for any disruptions.
As the deadline looms, pressure is mounting on lawmakers to find common ground and avoid a government shutdown. Many are strongly recommending that the House advance a “clean” continuing resolution for three months, which would set up a contentious battle post November and with a Lame Duck Congress.
The outcome of these negotiations will have far-reaching implications for the nation’s economy, its citizens, and its international standing.
Meet The Author:
As Vice President for Government Relations and Public Affairs, I work to explain how actions on Capitol Hill can impact the self-employed. I love D.C. and have made my home in Capitol Hill, where I live with my husband and black Labrador, Coltrane. We love playing volleyball and softball on the National Mall.
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