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Republican Trifecta, Nominations, First 100 Days, and Trump-Vance Priorities
Senate
The Republicans have secured the majority in the Senate, picking up crucial seats in Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. Democrats held their own in Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, helping keep the majority slim.
Speaking of vacancies, Governor Mike DeWine (R-OH) will appoint to fill the vacancy by Vice President-elect JD Vance. The timing is TBD based on when Vice President-elect JD Vance formally submits his resignation, probably some time closer to inauguration.
House
The Republicans have clinched the majority, although a slim, razor majority of somewhere between 1 and 5 seats. The slim majority is even tighter due to three nominations of current House members to serve in the Trump Administration: Rep Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, Rep Elise Stefanik as UN Ambassador and Rep. Mike Waltz as National Security advisor.
House Leadership
Speaker Johnson (R-LA) and Majority Leader Scalise (R-LA) have both publicly announced they will seek to retain their leadership roles. Given the trajectory of the 2024 election outcome, it would be surprising to see a member of the caucus challenge either one, but again, slim majorities make for interesting times.
Leader Jeffries and his team should remain intact, although there is a significant (understably) assessment of what went wrong. In fairness, the Democrats were fairly bullish on their predictions to gain control of the lower chamber, but it is still something the conference needs to contend with.
Senate Leadership
On November 13, Senate Republicans elected Senator John Thune (R-SD) to serve as the next Republican Leader of the Senate. Sen. Thune won the leadership election against Senators John Cornyn (R-TX) and Rick Scott (R-FL) in a secret ballot election. President-elect Trump did not endorse a candidate in the Leadership race at the advice of allies in the Senate.
Trump Nominations
Attorney General: Congressman Matt Gaetz
Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth
Secretary of State: Senator Marco Rubio
Secretary of Homeland Security: Governor Kristi Noem
Secretary of Interior: North Dakota Governor Burgum
Secretary of HHS: RJF Jr.
EPA: Former Congressman Lee Zeldin
National Security Advisor: Congressman Mike Waltz
UN Ambassador: Congresswoman Elise Stefanik
US Ambassador to Israeli: Former Governor Mike Huckabee
DNI: former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard
First 100 Days
Executive Orders
It is believed that over 300 executive orders (compared to President Biden: he signed 34 EOs in the first four months of his Administration) have been prepared for President-elect Trump to take action on, usually the bulk of EOs are utilized to rescind action of the previous Administration. However, there are some highly unique positions that we could anticipate via Executive Orders, including:
Immigration Policies
Reinstating the Travel Ban: The administration plans to reissue the travel ban affecting several majority-Muslim countries, a policy first implemented in 2017.
Halting Refugee Resettlement: An executive order is anticipated to suspend refugee admissions, aiming to reduce legal immigration pathways.
Government Restructuring
Reimplementing "Schedule F": Would make it possible for agencies to reclassify certain career federal workers in policy-related roles to a new “Schedule F” category of employment. Any employees moved into the new Schedule F classification would have seen their civil service protections removed, making them at-will employees and giving agencies much more flexibility to fire them.
Climate
Withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreements: In the previous Trump Administration, the US exited the agreement. However, President Joe Biden signed a letter requesting the US be readmitted on his first day in office. Many anticipate that Trump will once again move to exit the agreement. Leaving the agreement would mean the US is no longer beholden to meeting set carbon emissions reductions.
Tariffs
Across the Board Tariffs: Trump’s plan includes imposing tariffs on imported goods, especially those coming in from China, arguing that these taxes would keep manufacturing jobs in the US.
It’s still unclear how widespread these tariffs will be, but Trump has raised the prospect of at least a 10% across-the-board tariff on imported goods, as well as a 60% import tax on goods from China.
Trump-Vance Administration Priorities
Taxes
We anticipate in the first 100 days for Congress to advance via reconciliation an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. This act significantly reduced corporate tax rates and provided tax relief for high-income earners. While there is unlikely to be major opposition to the extension of some of the provisions, Republicans have voiced concern related to the impact of the growing federal deficit, which could set up a very brutal fight around offsets and discretionary spending.
Regulatory Action
The Trump Administration will focus heavily on reducing regulatory burden and rolling back Biden era rules in the banking, financial services, and housing sectors; as well as repealing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) and climate disclosure standards (EO 14030).
Small Business
Unlike Vice President Harris, the Trump plans/platforms are minimal in articulating their small business vision. Project 2025 does include recommendations related to the Small Business Administration, including improving access to private capital markets rather than expanding government-backed loan programs.
Meet The Author:
As Vice President for Government Relations and Public Affairs, I work to explain how actions on Capitol Hill can impact the self-employed. I love D.C. and have made my home in Capitol Hill, where I live with my husband and black Labrador, Coltrane. We love playing volleyball and softball on the National Mall.
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